MURKETING

Optimism

I do not pretend to know whether the House should have voted down the bailout today. I do know I’m surprised. And, perhaps, a bit freaked out.

Also, I’m thinking about an absolutely fascinating conversation I had a few days ago, and about the nature of optimism.

The conversation was with a guy I’ll call J. Clearly a very smart guy, J is actually connected to the investing business. I met him on a day when the markets had been pretty nuts a week solid. I was curious what he made of it. The bailout idea had already been floated and the markets seemed to like it. I told him that I understood the basic concept but I didn’t get the details — notably how the government would value these exotic securities it was proposing to buy up. I thought maybe J would have some insight on this and certain other structural issues I find confusing.

Instead, he shrugged. He was almost supernaturally calm, particularly for somebody in his line of work. I wasn’t taking notes but here’s a paraphrase of what he had to say, as I remember it:

I don’t know the details either. Haven’t looked into it. But I’m sure it will be fine. I trust them to come up with the right solution. I trust that they are the right people to do it, and that they understand the details and will do the best things, and that everything will work out.

The truth is, I don’t even vote, because I trust other people to decide which politicians are the best ones to handle whatever problems might come up. And I’m sure that’s happened, and there’s nothing to worry about. Things will work out.

Needless to say, this wasn’t the answer I was expecting. And probably needless to say, this point of view is rather at odds with the way I tend to look at the world.

It gave me pause. Like I said, this guy seemed smart, and he seemed reasonable. I talked to him about a number topics, and he was certainly not an ignorant man, in fact he probably had more facts in his head than I do. (That’s why I’d introduced the topic in the first place.) And he wasn’t being provocative. He was calm, and matter of fact.

Honestly, it kind of made me wish I could see the world the way he does.